linux market share 7.3%!

metacon

####################################
# Linux Install Base Approximation #
# October 28 2009 #
####################################

*16 million fedora installs number from jef spaleta "giving accurate fedora
client counting the 115% effort it deserves"
*H.P.D. from distrowatch for last 6 months
*all the distros from top to gentoo included because gentoo by my guess is the
smallest major distro
*the installs column is the percent of fedoras H.P.D (hits per day) of the
distro's H.P.D times fedoras installs. assuming that the page hits represent
how much more or less popular the bistro is than fedora and that popularity is
representative of the distros install base
*from my experience most linux boxes were sold as windows boxes so im using the
1 billion number from microsoft as the total number of PCs divided by the
the Linux install base to get Linux market share http://arstechnica.com/micros
oft/news/2007/07/windows-install-base-to-break-one-billion-in-2008.ars

DISTRO H.P.D H.P.D/1618 INSTALLS
+---------+-----+----------+----------+
|fedora |1618 |1 |16,000,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|ubuntu |2067 |1.3 |20,800,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|mint |1313 |.8 |12,800,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|opensuse |1249 |.8 |12,800,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|mandriva |944 |.6 | 9,600,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|debian |897 |.6 | 9,600,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|puppy |806 |.5 | 8,000,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|sabayon |773 |.5 | 8,000,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|pclinuxos|700 |.4 | 6,400,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|arch |678 |.4 | 6,400,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|slackware|632 |.4 | 6,400,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|centos |592 |.4 | 6,400,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|tinycore |467 |.3 | 4,800,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|mepis |453 |.3 | 4,800,000|
|---------+-----+----------+----------|
|gentoo |417 |.3 | 4,800,000|
+---------+-----+----------+----------+

LINUX INSTALL BASE: 137,600,000
LINUX MARKET SHARE: 7.3%!!!1!1!!!!!1!!!


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aka metacon

metacon

sorry the ascii art looked ok in the preview it got messed up it says joe werner

Goineasy9

Interesting equation, except I wouldn't use DistroWatch HPD as a variable in any equation to calculate Linux install base. I know of too many distros that encourage their user base to click on the so-called DistroWatch vote area to increase their particular distros standings. That alone invalidates its use as a variable.

Nice try though. And I'm glad that someone is working on the illusive Linux share.

metacon

thanks for replying. its an approximation only and the hpd are a recognized reference of the popularity. i dint uses the smaller distros for the reason u said as they can be influenced by directed effort and as i do people who dont use them look to c whats up and coming. however u cannot get to the top 15 by fraud alone. so it is true that ubuntu has more users than fadora and mint has less. this is more accurate than user agent strings or sales figures which say linux is at .9%. if any one has better numbers i think the pount is to use the stuff we know the get an estimate so that companies dont quote the .9% as y they dont support linux drivers.